Recently, Russia has assembled a large number of troops near the border between the Crimea Peninsula and the eastern part of Ukraine, causing tensions to erupt. Since China is also conducting military exercises along the Taiwan Strait, and sending military aircraft to invade Taiwan’s air defense identification zone every day, China and Russia are ready to move, and they seem to want to work together to counter the US situation. In particular, after high-ranking officials from the United States and China exchanged bad words during the Alaska talks, the Russian Foreign Minister immediately visited China and announced that they would further strengthen the strategic cooperative relationship between the two countries. It made people feel more about the recent military actions of the two countries. It's not just a coincidence.
Although Russia announced later that the exercise of assembled troops has been successfully concluded and is beginning to withdraw its troops, it has alerted the outside world to the possibility of China and Russia joining forces in the future. On the tactical level, this is indeed a very threatening strategic alliance. Although after the end of the Cold War, the United States’ combat readiness goal was to deal with two regional conflicts at the same time, but if the opponents in these two conflicts are not small countries such as Iran and North Korea, they have strong military power, nuclear retaliation capabilities, and economic strength. China and Russia, which have international influence, will be extremely pressured on the United States and its allies.
If Russia really attacks Ukraine to solve the long-term war in eastern Ukraine, and even invades Poland through Belarus; China also uses force to invade Taiwan and control the South China Sea and the East China Sea by force, breaking through the first island chain. That will be the biggest dream for the United States and its allies in the future. If the situation really develops to this point, it will be like an alliance between Japan and Germany during World War II. At that time, Japan and Germany launched wars in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, leaving the United States in a two-sided war. If one day, the United States, Japan, Australia and other countries are forced to fight against China in the Pacific, and Russia will conflict with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization including the United States on the European continent, it would be equivalent to World War III.
During World War II, the United States tried its best to avoid fighting with Japan and Germany at the same time. Only Japan determined that the United States had been exhausted in order to deal with Nazi Germany on the European battlefield and was unable to fight the Japanese in the Pacific, so it chose to attack Pearl Harbor and launch the Pacific War. Russia and China can now be said to have learned from the old wisdom of France, Japan and Germany. They have put pressure on the United States together, hoping that if the United States is unable to take care of it, it will be forced to abandon one of the battlefields or allow the United States to choose to compromise to avoid falling into the dilemma of fighting on both sides . However, it cannot be ruled out that one of the Congresses believed that there was an opportunity to take advantage of it, and the U.S.'s efforts to avoid the war with all its strength were vanished.
However, from a long-term strategic point of view, this strategy of China and Russia actually has its risks. First of all, in the national security strategy report previously published by the United States, China and Russia have been regarded as strategic competitors. As a result, China and Russia have joined forces, which undoubtedly proves that this strategic report proposed by the Trump administration is Yes, this also puts the newly appointed Biden administration under pressure to follow this report. The United States has fallen behind in the war on terrorism and is adjusting its national strategic direction. At this time, the military provocations of China and Russia will undoubtedly accelerate the U.S.'s move toward a system of confrontation between major powers. It completely regards China and Russia as serious challenges, and it must do its best to deal with it.
Secondly, the number one threat identified by NATO in the past was Russia. Therefore, the lack of interest in the US-led Indo-Pacific policy, especially China's huge market, made European countries unwilling to express their views on China. But the combination of China and Russia shows one thing, that is, Russia's threat to Europe is the same thing as China's threat to Asia. China and Russia have become horns to each other, using the simultaneous intimidation of troops to create war crises to persecute the United States and its allies. What China is doing in Asia is affecting the entire world situation, and European countries can no longer stay out of the situation.
In other words, if China can contain more U.S. military forces in Asia in the future, and the United States and its allies must spend more effort to contain China, then Russia will have more room to threaten Europe. This is not a positive development for NATO. Under such circumstances, in the future, European countries may be more active in joining the US anti-China containment net. Because weakening China is tantamount to cutting off Russia's flank allies. In the past, European governments ignored the expansion of China's power and may change. At least they will be strongly criticized by domestic public opinion or opposition parties, and the ruling party will be more cautious.
Especially Ukraine, because Ukraine is not only the most threatened by Russia, but also China's most important supplier of military technology. Not only China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was purchased from Ukraine. The carrier-based aircraft J-15 was also a copy of the Su-33 prototype provided by Ukraine. In addition, various weapons such as fighter engines, radar systems, aerial tankers, and air-cushioned landing craft were also available. Many are from Ukraine. Ukraine has contributed a lot to China's arms development, but China has now become an important ally of Russia when it threatens Ukraine. This has also made Ukraine somewhat vigilant, and has recently prevented China from acquiring Ukraine’s most important aero engine manufacturing company.
Whether the military alliance between China and Russia will be further strengthened and normalized in the future is worth observing. Once the confrontation between the allies headed by the United States and China and Russia has evolved into a long-term trend. The scale of this new cold war in the 21st century may be larger and broader than the long-term confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union in the past. Since the United States, Russia, and China are all countries with a large number of nuclear weapons, if a nuclear war does not break out quickly and lead to the destruction of the world, then this new cold war may last longer. The Biden administration has set the tune of this competition as a dispute between technology, comprehensive national strength and values, although it is not in the middle or far away.
For China, it is not a smart way to fight on its own against the United States. Therefore, it is understandable to choose Russia as an ally. But whether Russia is a reliable partner, I am afraid there is still a lot of room for discussion. Although the Communist Party of China today established its government with the help of Soviet Russia, Russia not only viciously invaded and swallowed Chinese territory in the past, but also often intervened in disputes between China and other countries, in the name of good offices, and obtained huge benefits from it. Not to mention the history of Sino-Soviet diplomacy during the Cold War. In the end, China joined the United States and together contained the Soviet Union's past. The relationship between the two parties is not as close and friendly as it seems now.
It is very likely that China is looking for a tiger's skin. Before the United States contained and competed, then Russia was ill-intentioned. In the end, it is very likely that it is not the United States, but China that fell into the disadvantaged situation of fighting on both sides.
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